Cross-sectoral ISIMIP and PROCLIAS online workshop 2021

The workshop featured a number of plenary, as well as sector-specific and thematic sessions including the following cornerstones:

• Latest ISIMIP modeling results: dedicated session on the latest ISIMIP modeling results, as well as ongoing paper ideas,
• ISIMIP climate forcing data: currently available data have been presented and possibilities of improving them have been discussed,
• ISIMIP3 socioeconomic forcing data: discussions of the development of ISIMIP3b group III socioeconomic forcing data and the adaptation runs.
• Cross-sectoral discussions on data harmonization, as well as on linking the Biomes, Fire and Permafrost sectors following up on the workshop in summer 2020.
• Keynotes by Johan Rockström, Noah Diffenbaugh and Tamma Carleton
• Kick-off of the newly started COST Action PROCLIAS including dedicated sessions to plan working group activities

Session

Presentations

Sector meeting: Forest

(9:00-10:00 am)

Chairs: Christopher Reyer, Mats Mahnken

• Session outline (Christopher Reyer)
• Discussing the idea of country scale multi-model simulations:
• General Idea (Christopher Reyer)
• Examples (D. Loustau, a.o.)
• Discussing the table of available models and their constraints/data needs etc.
• Discussing next steps (e.g. integration of this activity as Task Group into COST Action PROCLIAS, next meetings, todos)
• Short break-out group with co-authors on forest evaluation paper

Sector meeting: Water global

(9:30-10:30 am)

Chairs: Hannes Müller-Schmied, Simon Gosling

• status of simulations in the global water sector (ISIMIP2/3)
• possible adaptation scenarios from the global water sector (results of survey)
• sectoral thoughts on a ISIMIP3 special issue
• any other discussion
• “JULES latest developments in ISIMIP3” (Aristeidis Koutroulis)

Sector meeting: Energy (1)

(10:00-12:00 am)

Chair: Victhalia Zapata

• Presentation of track A, track B simulations and getting people involved (c. 30 minutes).
• Participant presentations (c. 30 minutes).
• Discussion of new ideas, including the demand side (c. 30 minutes).

Sector meeting: Biomes & Permafrost

(10:30-12:00 am)

Chairs: Philippe Ciais, Christopher Reyer, Anne Gädeke

• Status update biomes sector (C. Reyer, all modellers)
• Valid variable ranges for biomes models (C. Reyer)
• Paper presentations:
  • First analysis of ISIMIP3b simulation from VISIT and presentation of ISIMIP2b paper idea (A. Ito)
  • Disentangling the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on terrestrial carbon cycle during 1850-2014 (Y Zhang)
  • Future greenhouse gas balance of northern peatlands: evidence from a multi-model assessment (C Qiu)
  • Additional paper plans tbc
• Discussion of peatland sector (A. Gädeke, A Galego-Sala, C. Reyer)
• Status update permafrost sector (A. Gädeke) and related permafrost activities (E. Burke, J. Kirchner)

Sector meeting: Energy (2)

(12:00-1:00 pm)

Chair: James Glynn

• Introduction of the new Track focusing on the impacts of weather fluctuations and extremes on the Energy Sector (James Glynn)
• Series of input talks by groups that would be interested in participating in the sector
• Discussion of protocol requirement with regard to input data (to be provided by ISIMIP) and output data
• Scenario design

Opening session

(2:00-3:00)

Chair: Katja Frieler

• Introductory ​ Keynote​: “Climate impacts in the Anthropocene" (Johan Rockström, PIK)
• Welcome, ISIMIP news and housekeeping (Katja Frieler)
• ISIMIP awards ceremony recording (Christopher Reyer)

Sector meeting: Agriculture

(3:00-3:45)

Chair: Jonas Jägermeyr

• GGCMI Plum coupling (Sam Rabin)
• Extreme event impacts on global crop productivity (Jonas Jägermeyr)
• Potential poleward shift of major breadbaskets under climate change (Jim Franke)
• Evaluation of empirical and process-based crop models (Haynes Stephens)
• Discussion and way forward

Plenary session: "Climate forcing data - Ways to​ ​increase their temporal and spatial resolution"

(4:15-5:15 pm)

Chair: Stefan Lange

• "Challenges and prospects on the road to 1km ISIMIP3b daily climate data” (Dirk Karger)
• “From daily to sub-daily climate projections: Increasing the temporal resolution by means of statistical downscaling” (Sixto Herrera Garcia)

Cross-sectoral meeting: Biomes/Fire/ Permafrost

(6:00-8:00 pm)

Chairs: Anne Gädeke, Christopher Reyer

• Short Keynotes on current exciting research questions and future prospects for biome-permafrost-fire modelling by:
  • Philippe Ciais
  • James Randerson
  • "Fire in the Land of Ice - Climatic Drivers and Feedbacks" (Sander Veraverbek)
  • Moritz Langer
  • Eleanor Burke
• Discussion of paper ideas within ISIMIP3 either in plenary or as break-out groups

Socioeconomic input data for ISIMIP3b group III simulations

(9:00-10:30 am)

Chair: Shouro Dasgupta

Health

• Data sets for labor productivity and heat-related mortality: i) prevalence of residential air conditioning, ii) % green spaces in specific cities, iii) hospital bed rates
• "Thoughts on socio-economic and other data for health climate change risk assessment" (Cyril Caminade)
• "Geospatial data, methods and applications to assess vulnerabilities and access to adaptation services" (Giacomo Falchetta)
• Sectoral breakdown

Sector meeting: Water regional (1)

(9:30-11:00 am)

Chairs: Fred Hattermann, Valentina Krysanova

• Status update and
• Ongoing studies on Detection & Attribution

Socioeconomic input data for ISIMIP3b group III simulations

(10:15-11:45 am)

Chairs: Hermann Lotze-Campen, Christopher Reyer

Land use models

• Status update of the preparation of ISIMIP LU pattern (Katja Frieler)
• technical break out session of selected participants to continue working on the data

Plenary session: Latest ISIMIP results

(12:00-1:30 pm)

Chair: Martin Park

• “FishMIP: Towards model improvement and cross-sectoral linkages” (Julia Blanchard)
• “Terrestrial biodiversity threatened by increasing global aridity velocity under high level warming” (Hao Shi)
• “Effects of hydrological model evaluation on climate change impacts” (Valentina Krysanova)
• "Streamflow-based evaluation of climate model sub-selection methods" (Jens Kiesel)
• “Sensitivity of global river flood simulations to the choice of climate forcing and hydrological model” (Benedikt Mester)
• “Aetiology-specific projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections” (Paul Lester Chua)
• “Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios” (Anne Gaedeke)
• “Climate change signal in global agriculture emerges earlier in new generation of climate and crop models” (Jonas Jägermeyer)

Plenary session: Ongoing paper ideas

(2:30-3:30)

Chair: Jacob Schewe

• “Assessing country level crop production risk based on ISIMIP3b crop yield simulations” (Samuel Eberenz)
• “Inter-model agreements and differences in reproducing global terrestrial hydrologic fluxes and storages in ISIMIP simulations” (Farshid Felfelani, Yadu Pokhrel et al.)

Keynote by Noah Diffenbaugh

(5:00-6:30 pm)

Chair: Christian Otto

“Attributing impacts of historical climate change: Recent progress in quantifying economic impacts using historical observations and climate model ensembles”

(Noah Diffenbaugh, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment)

(recording upon request)

Sector meeting:​ Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems

(9:30-11:00 pm)

Chair: Julia Blanchard, Derek Tittensor

• Update on CMIP6/ISIMIP3b analysis
• Overview and update on latest round of FishMIP simulation modelling results and papers
• Key model gaps and next steps
• Historical Fishing effort driver dataset
• Future drivers - update and progress: Phase 2 protocol and socio-economic forcing data for ISIMIP3b group III simulations
• Cross-sectoral linkages - update and opportunities
• FishMIP structure and coordination update.
• Any other items

Socioeconomic input data for ISIMIP3b group III simulations:

(9:00-10:00 am)

Chairs: Naota Hanasaki, Jacob Schewe

Water management (1)

• Sea water desalination,
• Inter-basin water transfers

PROCLIAS Kick-Off meeting

(10:15-11:45 am)

Chair: Christopher Reyer, Veronika Huber

• Introduction to COST ACTION PROCLIAS (C. Reyer)
• Introduction to PROCLIAS WG1: Common datasets and protocols for climate impact modelling (W. Thiery)
• Introduction to PROCLIAS WG2: Impact attribution and uncertainty assessments (V. Huber)
• Introduction to PROCLIAS WG3: Cross-sectoral climate impacts (S. Gosling)
• Introduction to PROCLIAS WG4: Communication and dissemination of climate impacts (I. Menke)

Socioeconomic input data for ISIMIP3b group III simulations

(12:00-1:30 pm)

Chairs: Björn Sörgel, Rocío Rivas, Jacob Schewe

Water management (2)

• future dam locations
• dam operations

Sector meeting: Health

(2:00-4:00 pm)

Chairs: Veronika Huber, Joacim Rocklöv

• Welcome and introduction (Veronika Huber, UPO, Sevilla)

14:05: The Lancet Planetary Health Special Issue: 10 min presentations of submitted papers:

• “Aetiology-specific projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections” (Paul Lester Chua, Nagasaki University) (tbc)
• “Mapping future scenarios of risk of Vibrio infections in a warming planet” (Joaquin Trinanes, NOAA) (tbc)
• “Impacts of climate change on combined labour productivity and supply” (Shouro Dasgupta, CMCC) (tbc)
• “Regional projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe” (Joan Ballester, ISGlobal) (tbc)
• “Global, regional and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019” (Qi Zhao, Shandong University) (tbc)
• “Projecting the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in a warmer and more urbanized world” (Felipe Colon Gonzalez, LSHTM) (tbc)

15:05: Recent results/work in progress from the ISIMIP Health Sector:

• “Comparison of statistical and dynamical modelling approaches to predict the expansion of malaria vector ​ An. Sacharovi ​ in Greece under climate change”
• (Adrian Tompkins, ICTP)
• “Estimating health-related social costs of carbon – work in progress” (Francis Dennig, Yale-NUSCollege)

15:15: Discussion on Special Issue follow-up and future plans:

• ISIMIP data management (Iliusi Vega del Valle, PIK), ISIMIP protocols, ISIpedia platform
• PROCLIAS COST Action, ISIMIP3b focusing on adaptation, others

Socioeconomic input data for ISIMIP3b group III simulations

(3:15-4:00 pm)

Chair: Jonas Jägermeyr

Agriculture

• Growing Seasons

Plenary session: ISIMIP3a climate data -​ trends and counterfactuals

(9:00-10:30 am)

Chair: Jan Volkholz

• 09:00 - “Long-term variability of surface meteorology in GSWP3 forcing data” (Hyungjun Kim)
• 09:30 - “Trends from 1979 to 2018 in the WFDE5 and WFDEI datasets” (Graham P. Weedon)
• 10:00 - “ATTRICI v1.1 - counterfactual climate for impact attribution” (Stefan Lange)

(recording available upon request)

Sector meeting: Water regional (2)

(10:45-12:15 am)

Chair: Fred Hattermann

• Next Special issue: studies, participants and timelines

Socioeconomic input data for ISIMIP3b group III simulations

(12:30-1:30 pm)

Chair: Jacob Schewe

Water management (3)

• Non agricultural water withdrawals and uses

PROCLIAS WG1

(2:00-3:15 pm)

Chair: Wim Thiery

• Common datasets and protocols for climate impact modelling

PROCLIAS WG2

(2:00-3:15 pm)

Chair: Veronika Huber

• Impact attribution and uncertainty assessments

Keynote by Tamma Carleton

(5:00-6:30 pm)

Chair: Björn Sörgel

"Using economics and big data to measure the costs of climate change"

(Tamma Carleton, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, UC Santa Barbara)

(recording available upon request)

Sector meeting: Lakes

(9:00-11:00 am)

Chair: Wim Thiery

• Status of ISIMIP2b simulations
• Status of ISIMIP2b analyses and papers
• Timeline of ISIMIP3a-b simulations
• Call for data: many physical sites + a few biogeochemistry supersites? What are the data requirements?
• Varia

PROCLIAS WG3

(11:15-12:45 am)

Chair: Simon Gosling

• Cross-sectoral climate impacts

PROCLIAS WG4

(11:15-12:45 am)

Chair: Inga Menke

• Communication and dissemination of climate impacts

Plenary session: Closing remarks

(1:30-2:00 pm)

Chair: Martin Park

• Conclusions and outlook (Katja Frieler)

PROCLIAS Closing remarks

(2:00-2:45 pm)

Chair: Christopher Reyer

• ​ Results of WG meetings and next steps

PROCLIAS MC meeting

(2:45-3:30 pm)

Chair: Christopher Reyer

(PROCLIAS MC members only)

Sector meeting: Biodiversity

(20 January 2:00-4:00 pm)

Chair: Thomas Hickler, Christopher Reyer

tbc